by With top free agents off the market, it’s time for the hot furnace to seek alternative fuel in the form of trades, and we got an interesting one on Friday. The Marlins send pitcher Pablo López (plus a couple of prospects) to the Twins in exchange for reigning batting champion Luis Arraez. It is the first time a player has been traded in the winter after winning the batting title since Rod Carew in 1978. Let’s dive in:
Agreement
Gemini gets: RHP Pablo López, infielder Jose Salas and outfielder Byron Chourio
Marlins acquire: Infielder Luis Arraez
For the twins
The Twins’ biggest need was their starting pitching. They have now addressed it. No, López is not an ace, but he is a solid option for the middle of the rotation and a critical piece of depth.
The 26-year-old right-hander has found his footing in the last three seasons. In that time, he has posted a 3.52 ERA (119 ERA+), plus 9.2 K/9. He’s coming off a career-high 180-inning season — the first time he’s finished a year with more than 25 starts — though his overall performance represented a small step back from his 2021 breakout. In short, López is just that kind of rotation addition that was needed in Minnesota, and put a reliable, quality arm in the middle of this group. Per Roster Resource, he will slot in as the No. 2 starter behind Sonny Gray, ahead of Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober. (Chris Paddack should be able to rejoin the rotation in late summer after recovering from Tommy John surgery.) It’s still not a particularly fearsome group. But López immediately makes it better and offers some flexibility. That’s not to say the Twins still wouldn’t benefit from even more — is any team ever completely set on pitching depth? — but it’s something they could continue to pursue at the deadline if their season goes according to plan.
The prospects Minnesota added here are promising, but clearly long-term plays. Salas is a 19-year-old infielder who consistently ranks among the top five in Miami’s system; Chourio, an outfielder, is still only 17.
After a weak 2022, Minnesota had a great month, (re-)locking Carlos Correa and now getting needed rotation help through López. The Twins will miss Arraez, but they needed to strengthen their pitching far, far more than they needed their bats. It doesn’t take much to gain a foothold in the squishy AL Central, and for the Twins, these latest moves could go a long way toward getting them where they want to be.
Arraez is another solid bat, but he lacks the power that the Marlins lacked last season.
Wendell Cruz/USA TODAY Sports
For the Marlins
On the one hand, Miami obviously needed offense, and trading from the deep pitching staff looked like the best way to get it. On the other… this was a curious way to go about it.
Arraez is (clearly) a big hitter. If you are interested in anyone who can get in touch – and there is an explicit interest in this team! – you can’t do much better. But there are some big question marks here. One is whether it really makes sense to add this kind of contact hit for a roster that could so desperately use some power. (Miami’s .363 slugging percentage last year was dead last in the NL.) Yes, Arraez has a career batting average of .314, with bat-to-ball skills that have been nearly unmatched since his debut four seasons ago. He is one of only seven players to hit over .300 with at least 1,500 plate appearances since 2019. But his lack of power is so striking that it stands out even among this small group of contact hitters: His .410 slugging percentage is not only the lowest of the seven, but the only one to come in under .455. Arraez’s home run total over the past four seasons is 14. The six other players who have hit .300 here each have at least 40. (They are, in order of batting average, Tim Anderson, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, Michael Brantley, Jeff McNeil and Xander Bogaerts.) Arraez is among the best in the game for his specific skill set. But those skills are loud specific.
Another question mark is Arraez’s positional fit. He started a number of his games at first base in 2022, after starting the most at second in ’21 and the most at third in ’20, and didn’t exactly cover himself in glory at either position. Marlins general manager Kim Ng announced on Friday that he would primarily play second base in Miami, which means moving previous second baseman Jazz Chisholm, Jr. to center field, presumably with Joey Wendle at short and recent acquisition Jean Segura at third. It’s … an interesting way to set up an inset defense. (Not least because those four players are better described as “four second basemen” than as “three-quarters of an infield and a center fielder.”) But there might not be a better way to arrange this particular set.
But the biggest question here is something else. The Marlins should theoretically be in the driver’s seat: All of the solid rotation additions are off the market now, which means there’s a lot to be said for a trade piece like López, especially one with two seasons of team control. That should have created a lot of decent options for Miami. To end up dealing with López Plus more prospects for a hitter like Arraez, who, while talented, is a questionable fit for this roster? It’s hard to believe that was the best way forward.
