Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction, odds, line, spread, start time: 2023 NFL playoff picks from 16-6 toss model

The Jacksonville Jaguars hope to end a long losing streak against the Kansas City Chiefs when they visit the AFC West champions on Saturday in the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs. Since a 24-21 win in 2009, Jacksonville (10-8) has lost six row with Kansas City, including a 27-17 decision on the road in Week 10. The AFC South champion Jaguars will have their hands full against the Chiefs (14-3), who are 4-0 in the divisional round with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:30 PM ET. Kansas City is a nine-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. The Jaguars odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points is 52.5. Before you lock in some Jaguars vs. Chiefs pick, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates each NFL play 10,000 times, has gone up well over $7,000 for $100 bets on top-ranked NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs on an incredible 162-113 run on top-ranked NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. It’s also on a 16-6 roll on top-ranked NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.

The model was ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on direct NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Everyone who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has set its sights on the Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Saturday and just locked in their picks and NFL playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s selection. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Jaguars vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars spread: Kansas City -9
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars over/under: 52.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars money line: Kansas City -550, Jacksonville +400
  • KC: The Chiefs are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine home games
  • JAX: The Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Kansas City
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks: See picks here

Featured game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why the Chiefs can cover

Mahomes has been supreme in the NFL playoffs during his career, leading Kansas City to an 8-3 record and a Super Bowl championship. The 27-year-old has thrown for 3,381 yards with 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 11 postseason games while rushing for 323 yards and five scores. Mahomes had a strong performance in the Chiefs’ 27-17 win against Jacksonville in Week 10, completing 26 of 35 attempts for 331 yards and four TDs.

Kansas City finished first in passing offense (297.8 yards) during the regular season, as Mahomes led the NFL in yardage (career-high 5,250) and touchdown throws (41). The team had four players with more than 500 receiving yards, with tight end Travis Kelce tied for eighth in the league with 1,338 on a career-best 110 catches. Wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling recorded 933 and 687 yards, respectively, in their first seasons with the Chiefs, while running back Jerick McKinnon finished with 512 and nine TD receptions, including one in each of his last six games. See which team to choose here.

Why the Jaguars can cover

Jacksonville has been on a roll since the November loss at Kansas City, going 7-1 after rallying from a 27-point deficit to win 31-30 against the Los Angeles Chargers during Super Wild Card Weekend. With that triumph, the Jaguars became the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game after finishing with the league’s worst record the previous season. Trevor Lawrence made his postseason debut, overcoming a miserable first half against the Chargers, throwing four interceptions to finish with 288 yards and four touchdown passes.

Lawrence, the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, has led Jacksonville to six straight wins after starting his professional career with a 7-22 record. The Jaguars gave the 23-year-old quarterback a solid receiving corps last offseason, bringing in tight end Evan Engram and wideouts Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, who all set career highs in catches and receiving yards. Meanwhile, running back Travis Etienne Jr, Lawrence’s teammate at Clemson, bolstered the team’s ground attack by gaining 1,125 yards after missing his rookie season with a foot injury. See which team to choose here.

How to pick Chiefs vs. Jaguars

SportsLine’s model leans below the point total, requiring 50 combined points. The model also says that one side of the spread hits in over 50% of the simulations. You can only see the model’s choice at SportsLine.

So who will win the Jaguars vs. Chiefs in NFL playoffs 2023? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. The Jaguars spread that will be all over Saturday, ranging from the high-end model that is up well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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